Tools · Version 4.5
HSR Warp Calculator: Pull Odds, Pity and Jade Planning
Updated August 29, 2026 · 20,000 simulated warp sessions per estimate · Runs in your browser, nothing leaves the page
Enter your Stellar Jade, your passes and your pity, and this calculator simulates 20,000 warp sessions to tell you your real chance of landing the target — and exactly how short you are if the answer is no. Right now that question means Robin • Summeretto (through September 12), then Aventurine • Waveflair with the Ashveil rerun from September 12 — the full schedule lives on the banners page.
Your resources
Character target
Light cone (optional)
Chance of E0 with your pulls
0%
Enter your jade and pity on the left — the odds update as you type.
20,000 simulated runs per update. Probabilities rounded to whole percent — anything past that is noise.
Jade cost benchmarks
The numbers everyone plans around, from the same model the calculator runs (typical = median from zero pity, no guarantee; guaranteed = the absolute worst case).
| Target | Typical | Guaranteed | Jade for the guarantee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any 5★ (one pity cycle) | ~76 pulls | 90 pulls | 14,400 |
| Featured character, E0 | ~80 pulls | 180 pulls | 28,800 |
| Signature light cone, S1 | ~68 pulls | 160 pulls | 25,600 |
| E0 + S1 | ~152 pulls | 340 pulls | 54,400 |
| Full E6 | ~650 pulls | 1,260 pulls | 201,600 |
One pull = 160 Stellar Jade; Star Rail Special Passes are one pull each. “Typical” is a coin-flip midpoint, not a promise — half of all players pay more than it.
How the math works
This is a simulation, not a formula. Every time an input changes, the page replays 20,000 complete warp sessions from your exact starting state — your pity count, your guarantee, your pull budget — and the headline number is simply the share of those sessions that reached the target. Character copies are bought first; the light cone comes out of whatever is left.
The rate model: on the character event warp, each pull is a 0.6% chance at a 5★ through pull 73; from pull 74 the rate rises by about 6 percentage points per pull (soft pity) until pull 90 forces one (hard pity). Each 5★ is 50/50 featured versus standard, and losing the 50/50 guarantees the next one is featured. The light cone warp runs the same shape from a 0.8% base: soft pity from about pull 66, hard pity at 80, a 75/25 featured split, and the same loss guarantee. Pity and guarantee state carry between banners of the same type.
Honest fine print: HoYoverse publishes the base and consolidated rates (0.6% / 1.6% for characters, 0.8% / 1.87% for cones) but not the pull-by-pull soft-pity curve — the linear ramp above is the community-standard reconstruction from millions of logged warps, and this model's long-run average of about 94 pulls per featured character matches the official consolidated rate. Treat every output as an estimate with a point or two of wobble, which is exactly why we round to whole percentages. 4★ pity is not modeled; it has no effect on 5★ odds.
Warp calculator FAQ
How many pulls does it take to guarantee a 5-star in HSR?
Hard pity on the character event warp is 90 pulls: if 89 warps pass without a 5★, the 90th is one, guaranteed. That 5★ is only 50/50 to be the featured character, so the true worst case for a specific featured 5★ is 180 pulls — lose the 50/50 at pull 90, then hit a guaranteed featured copy within the next 90. On the light cone banner hard pity is 80 with a 75/25 split, so the worst case for a signature cone is 160 pulls.
What is soft pity in Honkai: Star Rail?
The 5★ rate isn't flat. On the character banner it sits at 0.6% per pull, then from roughly pull 74 it climbs steeply with every warp until pull 90 forces a 5★. That ramp is soft pity, and it's why most 5★s land in the mid-70s to mid-80s rather than at 90. The light cone banner works the same way from a 0.8% base, with the ramp starting near pull 66 and hard pity at 80.
Does pity carry over between banners?
Yes, within the same banner type. Character event pity and a guaranteed-featured status carry from one character banner to the next, across phases and across patch versions — 60 pity built on Robin • Summeretto's banner is still 60 pity on Aventurine • Waveflair's. Character, light cone, and standard warp each keep a separate counter, and pity never moves between those three tracks.
How much Stellar Jade is 90 pulls?
One warp costs 160 Stellar Jade, so 90 pulls — one full hard pity cycle — is 14,400 jade. The 180-pull worst case for a featured character is 28,800, and adding the signature cone's 160-pull worst case brings a fully guaranteed E0 + S1 to 54,400. Star Rail Special Passes count as one pull each.
Should I pull or save in 4.5?
Robin • Summeretto (through September 12) is the patch's safest single pull — an SS-rated support who upgrades almost any team at E0. Follow-up-attack rosters should hold for Phase 2, when Aventurine • Waveflair arrives alongside the Ashveil rerun on September 12. Run your own jade through the calculator above, then read the full 4.5 guide for the patch-wide pull verdicts.
The calculator tells you if you can afford the pull; the HSR tier list tells you if it's worth pulling. Use them in that order — jade spent on the wrong banner doesn't refund.